5 Thought-Provoking Scenarios Of The Future Of Work
We often refer to the future of work as some distant phenomenon, but that future is not far away. In fact, the transition has already begun. When we think of the future, we should not imagine it as some fixed destination. Given how quickly everything changes, we should plan for a future that is dynamic and is in a constant state of flux.
PWC recently has published a highly thought-provoking report Workforce of the Future: The competing forces shaping 2030. That report looks at the megatrends shaping the future along with the developments in AI and proposes four possible versions or “worlds” of what the future of work may look like in 2030. It is also urging the readers to start taking action now. While I found the four versions intriguing, albeit a bit disturbing at times, I added one more world as my vision for the workforce of the future. Everyone should start planning for what they think the future of work will be at their organization, in their industry, and in their country.
The authors of the PWC report make an important distinction between people and jobs. There is no doubt that technology will alter many of the current jobs. While the immediate instinctive reaction may be to try to protect these jobs or pretend that we can stall the technological change, we should instead focus on protecting the people. Organizations have a responsibility to their employees to help them become more agile, adaptable and assist their employees with re-skilling.
Megatrends
The PWC report identified five megatrends that we are experiencing right now.
- Rapid technological innovation in automation, AI, and robotics
- Demographics shifts in the size, age, and distribution of the world’s population
- Increase in the world’s urban population
- Power shift between developed and developing countries
- Climate change and lack of natural resources
3 Stages of Artificial Intelligence
AI is already reinventing jobs, and the potential for additional changes is limitless. It can be useful to think of AI in three different stages.
Assisted intelligence is readily available today in various gadgets, such as the GPS navigation systems. Assisted intelligence helps people and organizations automate repetitive and time-consuming tasks that people were already doing.
Augmented intelligence is just starting to emerge, and it is meant to help people and organizations with tasks they would not otherwise be able to do without combining the efforts of humans and machines.
Autonomous intelligence is being developed for the future where machines can operate and make decisions on their own.
Here are the four versions or worlds of work that we may see in 2030, as proposed by the authors of the PWC report based on their view of the current megatrends and the developments in AI.
The Yellow World
This is a world where humans come first. Community and businesses prosper together. People search for meaning and relevance in what they do and have a strong desire for fairness. Employees want to work for organizations with a strong record of social and ethical actions. Humanity is highly valued, but the relationship between employees and companies have changed. Instead of feeling loyalty to employers, individuals are more connected to people with the same skills or who are interested in similar causes. Guilds have become popular. They provide workers with a sense of identity and offer them pensions, training, and university education.
The Red World
This world is ruled by innovation. Both organizations and individuals are uber focused on consumer needs and creating products at lightning speed. The new products and business models are developed so quickly that they outpace regulation. Skills, network, and experience are valued more than an association with any specific organization. Continuous learning has taken on especial urgency, but formal education has become less valuable. The number of workers with full-time employment in the U.S. has been reduced to 9% of the workforce.
The Green World
Corporate social responsibility dominates in this world. Companies care about climate change, demographic shifts, and a desire for sustainability. They “place their societal purpose at the heart of their commercial strategy.” Automation and technology help to minimize environmental damage and protect scarce resources. Employers provide family-friendly benefits along with flexible hours and opportunities to work on socially meaningful projects. Employees are compensated fairly, and the idea of a “job for life” has become a reality again.
The Blue World
Big companies rule in this world. They have become so big that they are more powerful than some national governments. Corporate social responsibility has lost its importance. The primary focus is on performance, and the pressure to perform is unrelenting to the point that organizations have started to offer their employees cognitive-enhancing drugs to increase their productivity. Companies now provide most of the social benefits that used to be in the government’s domain, such as healthcare, children’s education, and eldercare. Employees’ every step is obsessively monitored, measured, and analyzed. Organizations use this data to predict performance and anticipate employee risk. This kind of environment has led to the emergence of a new type of elite super-workers.
One More World?
Of the four worlds described in the PWC report, the Blue World is quite terrifying. Given how much power large organizations, such as Amazon, have gained over the past decade, it certainly does not sound like something out of a 1950s science-fiction novel. The Blue World could be our reality if we do not make changes soon.
Can there be yet another world? Yes. I imagine it as a combination of the Yellow World and the Red World described by PWC. Apropos, let’s call it the Orange World.
The Orange World is focused on humanity, but driven by innovation. New products and services are constantly invented, and new ideas are highly valued. However, ethics, meaning, and relevance underlie everything that organizations do. Companies still exist, but they are now guided by the principles of “human” leadership, which include autonomy, respect, collaboration, trust, and recognition.
Work cultures are mutually beneficial to organizations and people who work there. Employees feel safe to propose novel ideas, and their managers regularly engage with them to understand what is important to the employees. Organizations have created a respectful and inclusive work environment where employees feel a sense of belonging and see how their work has a positive impact on others. Companies have a fair reward and recognition system in place that acknowledges employees for hard work. In the end, augmentation of humans and technology has allowed employees to reinvent themselves and create more meaningful work.
Conclusion
As a result of AI and automation, jobs are getting redefined, and this trend will continue to accelerate. Because it is impossible to predict what the world will look like in five or ten years, individuals and organizations must become more adaptable. Employees, in turn, have to be responsible for their own careers, skills, and experiences.
“As individuals – actual human beings – what do we need to do to thrive and prosper in whatever the new world brings? The secret for a bright future seems to me to lie in flexibility and in the ability to reinvent yourself. If you believe that the future lies in STEM skills and that interests you, train for that. But be prepared to rethink if the world doesn’t need so many programmers. If you are a great accountant who has prospered by building strong client relationships, think how you can apply that capability, without necessarily having to be an accountant. Think about yourself as a bundle of skills and capabilities, not a defined role or profession.” Carol Stubbings Global Leader, People and Organisation, PwC